Far out, we've got the crazies here on both sides.
- ISX is not going to reopen at $5 or $10. Who would want to throw money at something under significant investigation by at least 2 regulatory authorities, especially when they can't keep their stock trading.
- James Gerraty is not getting fired, and the ASX are not being made to look like idiots. He's doing his job, they're doing their job, and there's plenty fishy been revealed to justify this investigation. I wish I weren't holding at the moment. I certainly don't like where this has gone, and I have significantly less trust in management as a result of this.
- No shareholder is going to be able to sue the ASX out of this. The only party who could would be ISX themselves, and that'd be just about the stupidest thing they could possibly do.
On the other hand:
ISX is very unlikely to get delisted. That sentence at the bottom of the release is not a very real threat, it's a standard line. ASX can suspend or delist based on their own rules. Doesn't mean it's likely to happen.
My summary:
- ASX are very interested in protecting shareholders (like me), who may or may not have been ripped off by their directors, who have claimed substantial performance shares in rather dubious circumstances. If they booked revenue, claimed bonuses, and then credit noted the revenue, I'd be pretty livid. That's clearly a major line of inquiry. Under the relevant AASBs, there are several ways to recognised revenue, and the ASX are ensuring that ISX haven't adjusting the timing of their revenue to benefit the directors.
- ASX are very wary of ISX's methods of disclosure to the market. There's plenty in there where you read ISX's response and thing "yeah, that's reasonable", but there's been others where you think "hmm... a bit odd". Nevertheless, if they have a reasonably arguable position, the ASX should wave it on.
- ISX are getting frustrated and starting to go on the offensive against the ASX. Much as some on here will think that's the right move, it really, really isn't. At best it comes off as uncontrolled and unprofessional. At worst it comes off as obfuscating and attempting to distract. It's also worth noting that the reason you don't see these sort of tantrums from the big boys is that you just can't win. Picking a fight with the regulator is about as dumb as you can get.
If there is evidence of fraud, expect that most of us will join a class action against the directors.
Otherwise, if no one has defrauded the shareholders, ASX and ISX will have a meeting, hash it out, and come to an agreement. As part of that, you'll see the following statements (in some form):
- ASX: While we provide no assurance, we have concluded our enquiries at this time, and are reinstating ISX
Note: anyone expecting apology, explanation, detail, any form of admission, or any form of statement that ISX is cleared or vindicated - prepare to be disappointed. You will only hear if ISX did a significantly noteworthy wrong thing. Otherwise, it'll be a bland statement.
- ISX: We are vindicated and proven right
- ISX: We appreciate the ASX's enquries, acknowledge their important role in ensuring compliance, and are thankful for their diligence in this matter.
Eventually, ISX will have to stop pretending to be the jilted party, and settle with the ASX. That's just what happens.
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