In terms of valuing the shares, that's pretty difficult. The cash forward arrangement for this company, couple with the 120-day do-over for finding revenue if a customer goes bad, makes it difficult to value this company.
I think a metrics are needed:
* Revenue without forward financing. Pretending they did a more normal free-financing arrangement. Using something like a deposit for the filming followed by monthly payments (that could even credit the deposit) as a model, then perhaps the current conversion rate to payment plan could be a good marker. Is that 50%? So cut production revenue in half.
* Advertising revenue would remain the same, I think.
* Perhaps they could get better interest rates that 24% with an additional 24% cancellation fee, but that would probably require greater scrutiny of the SME's that sign up. Maybe a wash in terms of revenue.
So, as a first cut, half the market cap because revenue cuts in half and another amount because suddenly lose the mystique of being a crazy cash generating machine. So maybe 65% or so off current value?
Jeez, that's a lot.
BIG Price at posting:
$2.22 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held