Just talking about some numbers... Apparently the company has not achieved their delivery milestone number three of 750k/month quoted in their prospectus (which seems to be a favorite source of quotation for some). Let's accept the company did achieve 375k per month deliveries milestone last October. The increase from 250k to 375k in 5 months was believed by the management as an exceptional performance.
Therefore, an average ranging from 450k to 550k of deliveries for the past quarter will be a great result based on the growth curve implied. If we apply the best deal of $0.29/delivery (ie.transaction) across the board, the max December quarter sales figure is likely to be in the range of $393k to $480k. To be noticed that it is accrual basis analysis, the cash sales in the 4C will be different.
The annualised revenue from a pay as you go (PAYG) model is to be 2 million dollars at most as at 31 December 2017. As we all know now, the executed contracts or partnership agreements under this company's particular business model do not contribute to any reliable revenue projection. It is very difficult to have a 12 month revenue estimates, hence, the current enterprise value projected from whatever models should be discounted further at some degree.
The 500m market cap is in no way justified. Considering the potential class action or legal proceedings, the enterprise value is in limbo.
GSW Price at posting:
$2.92 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
