I'd definitely believe Winfield Holding which owns Talison...

I'd definitely believe Winfield Holding which owns Talison Lithium (Greenbushes mine) would be the main bidder for LTR however it's not possible because FIRB won't allow that to happen.

Greenbushes mine belongs to this trio (Albemarle-Tianqi-IGO) and they are all in desperation as they will run out of ore in Greenbushes mine around 2031 IMO.

Greenbushes mine is a money printing machine;

"Lithium giant Greenbushes generates $2.8b windfall" 28/04/2023

That $2.8b revenue is for Q1-2023. (it was in a bad time of the year but GB can sell its lithium easily)

It implies to $11b revenue per annum.

So the owners of this mine (The Trio) can easily make an offer to LTR for $12b which is one year's revenue for them.

However it's not possible because FIRB (Foreign Investment Review Board) would not let that to happen because Tianqi is in the control of Greenbushes with 51% through its JV with IGO. (If they were all in same JV then it would have been a different situation because ALB and IGO would be in majority, but that's not the case)

Talison Lithium Greenbushes (Winfield Holding) is a JV company between;

• Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia (TLEA) (Tianqi-IGO JV) ; holds 51%
• Albemarle holds 49%

However in Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia (TLEA);

• Tianqi holds 51%
• IGO holds 49%

Basically Tianqi is in the control of Greenbushes.

Because Tianqi is a Chinese entity FIRB would not accept LTR's takeover Talison Lithium's takeover.

I don't know if they can find a way to get the permission from FIRB for that. Not likely IMO.

However Greenbushes mine belongs to this trio and they are all in desperation.

I explained that issue on my many posts in last three years, and on my last post about it was this post;Post #:67091550 (See below under the separation lines)

Btw, just recently I have got new intel that I was dead right and Greenbushes has no more life beyond 2031. That was the mid point on the my estimation graph below which was made 3 years ago.

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THE DESPERATION:
GREENBUSHES MINE HAS NO MORE THAN 10 YEAR LIFETIME.

They invested so much in Greenbushes mine (together with Tianqi) and their lithium hydroxide plants in WA, but they didn’t realised that they don’t have enough ore to feed all these plants.

The annual ore feed rate of Greenbushes is 13.5mt. They would process 130mt in 10 years time.

The resource was 120mt at 2.4% or 170 at 2% L2O 3 years ago in 2020. I don’t know how much left now.

They have 3 trains of running spod process plant plus one is sitting as spare. They invested big money on them.

They thought that thy could get permission to make exploration around Greenbushes forests which is a national park. They couldn’t get the permission to do that.



THE FUNNY THING WAS; THEY DIDN'T HAVE A B PLAN

LTR was making significant discoveries at that time and they were watching. They were aware of what LTR had that time.

But we knew they would run out of ore around 2032. I have posted info about that many times here. First one: Post #:39833185 on 02/08/2019, Post #:40823290 on 10/10/2019, post #:63770484on 19/09/2022. and just recently Post #:65636261 on 11/01/2023.

So, TG knows their weakness very well. (I also presented this graph to him on Feb 2020. He found it very interesting and enjoyed what he saw)

That was 3 years ago, now they have less time


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