While I said I'm not happy sell my LTR shares at any price, I will keep making research and analysis about what's going on in the market and what could be the M&A probabilities and the reasons for discussing here.
As I said before whichever existing lithium miner buys LTR's KV project then it will be the largest lithium producer in the world.
However every single one those existing producers or even a new major miner which wants to enter the lithium upstream (mining) and midstream (refining) sectors might have their own unique needs or ambitions.
From this perspective, ALB is the worst situation. The Greenbushes mine is running out of ore around 2031 as I said on my post before (it's my opinion as the results of my own research and analysis ).
The Greenbushes mine resource is interestingly classified in two ways 3 years ago;
- 120mt resource at 2.4% Li2O or,
- 170mt resource at 2.0% Li2O
Why they bring the original 2.4% resource down to 2% resource is because they mix their lower grade ore (around 1.40-1.50% with the high grade ore which is 2.4%, and make an ore with ave grade of 2% to feed the plant.
Now that tells us that their ave. ore feed grade is 2%.
And their process machines are optimised for processing ore of 2%.
Feeding the machines with 2% ore gives them very low cost spod production. As we can see on their latest updates of Q1-2023, their cost for SC6 spod is around US$290 which is half of PLS's cost for producing 5.3% spod concentrate in the same quarter (Q1-2023)
Greenbushes is also running out of lower grade ore all together with high grade. However it's not possible to find any other Greenbushes in the world.
Now this is the point; for keeping the low cost high quality spod production going on, the Greenbushes mine, I mean the Talison Lithium JV needs a high grade ore to feed their machines and it has to be around 1.40%-1.50%.
There is only two projects which hav this high grade ore in Australia;
- Mt Holland Project of WES-SQM JV (Covalent lithium) with 190mt at 1.50% ave. Li2O
- Kathleen Valley project of LTR with 156mt at 1.40% Li2O (or 1.50% with tantalum credits)
There is no way to buy the Mt Holland project.
Can you see the importance of KV project now?
If ALB or even Talison Lithium JV can't buy the KV Project they have no way out from Greenbushes that they may have to move out their machines to maybe Africa around 2032.
But anyway they should have listened to me long time ago .
Fortunately they didn't.
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