Here is my Post #: 64746296 on Nov.13 2022 explaining by numbers...

Here is my Post #: 64746296 on Nov.13 2022 explaining by numbers how LTR sp could go to $10.

All credit goes to @Anteviariel btw because he did all the spreadsheet work for making those tables and I modified them a little bit. Also this is the old post before LTR increased its ore feeding capacity from 2.5mt to 3mt per annum.


Post #: 64746296 on Nov.13 2022
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You can see why LTR can easily be over $10 in 2025,
even by using the half of today's spod concentrate and 60% of today's lithium hydroxide price.

Here are the assumptions below. We need to make them first.
I only assumed

1) SC6 spod price will be $4,000 per tone (Today's price is >$8,000/t
2) Lithium hydroxide price will be $50,000 per tone (Today's price is $85,000/t)

Stage-1 Capex is construction of spod concentrate plant. We need $550m for it. It will be constructed and start production at the end H1-2024.

Stage-2 Capex is construction of lithium hydroxide plant. It will be constructed in 2029.
We need $1,550b for it. The money for it will be accumulated from the cash flow in first 5 years. You can see it in the Free Cash Flow table below. (However there is a plan that LTR may take a JV partner for it. Then that money will be paid out as dividends)

I also assumed someone buys 100,000 LTR shares at $2.
And calculated the dividends and the appreciation in the value of shares for each year for that investment.

WA gov. royalties are included in the ASIC (All in sustained cash) cost of spod concentrate. No other royalties need to be calculated.

P/E (Price/Earnings) ratio is taking as 20.
Just for comparison, today PLS's P/E ratio is 28.

Dividend payout is assumed to be the 40% of NPAT (Net profit after tax).
The other 60% will be held by the company.

If there is any mistakes I'm happy to be corrected.



You can see what's happening financially from the starting of 2025 (2024) is not included)

REVENUE

The revenue starts with nearly $2b in 2025.
The total revenue at the end of 2034 is being $43b.
That is a huge thing and it will be more than double of that when you consider this mine will run for 23 years.

NPAT (Net profit After Tax)

$1.145b for 2025.
At the end of 2034 NPAT is $25 billion.
(There is 13 more years to go)

EPS (Earnings Per Share)
is being 52c for 2025,
and increases gradually to $1.77.
Ave. EPS is $1.13



DIVIDENDS:

Because we assumed the dividend payout will be 40% of NPAT, then it's being $0.21 for the first year.
Then it increases gradually to $0.71 in 2034

There is also franking credits which a shareholder can get back from gov.

I gave made the calculation for 100,000 shares held (bought at $2 per share) by a total cost of $200k.

That shareholder can get $30,000 dividend in 2025.
But interestingly he/she can get $652,000 total dividend at the end for 10 years. That is 3 times bigger than the money he/she invested.

And the shares are still sitting in the portfolio by over $10 per share value and the total value of $1m.




FREE CASH FLOW (FCF)

FCF is gigantic.
After paying 40% of NPAT and $1.5b for the lith. hydroxide refinery company will be holding over $10b cash in 2034.



And here comes the highly probable stock prices per share by the years.

The 2025 gives over $10 per share stock price.
In 2030 it's being $20 ps.
And it'd be $35 in 2034.

The value of 100,000 shares would be over $1m in 2025.



But not let's not forget, these are all calculated by using the half of today's spod concentrate price.

I only assumed;
- SC6 spod price will be $4,000/t (Today's price is >$8,000/t
- Lithium hydroxide price will be $50,000/t (Today's price is $85,000/t)

If I'd assume today's prices;
- SC6 spod concentrate price; $8,000/t and
- Lithium hydroxide price will be $85,000/t

Then the stock price would be $22.50 in 2025.
You can follow the other years results on the table below.
It goes to $67 per share in 2034.



These calculation are only for speculation of stock price. It may happen or not. Please DYOR. I'm holding since I bought it 2.1c as I'm an investor but not a trader.

All data is taken from LTR's DFS and other documents (@Anteviariel made it and checked it out as well, because I don't know him), therefore they are actual numbers.