Great to see some numbers - everyone is free to have their own interpretation on what that should be - given we're less than 12 months away from official production; I'm holding back on making any forecast... for now.
However a couple of interesting items I noticed in LTR's Macquarie preso that may be a hint given to us to work with.
The present P/E is 10.4x (Integrated) and 4.4x (Upstream) - and to a point
@Kikker1959 raised - PLS current P/E is at single digit as well from a slide in the preso (
note; I'm pretty happy with PLS's maiden dividend - hopefully another 10c ~ 20c for FY2023); could 20 be a possibility some time in the future for integrated? only time will tell.
Below from page 17 is probably what I'm most excited about; and I will need to update my spreadsheet in due course (
maybe once LTR is in production so we could get some cost guidance, etc) -
LTR is exploring opportunity to bring 4 Mtpa to Year 4 (2026 - 2027); 2 years earlier than scheduled being Year 6 (2028); higher EPS earlier than expected = higher dividends, but this may mean we may see reduced or no dividends for the 1st couple of years to fund the expansion + downstream depending on cost and SC6.0 pricing at time of delivery
If it's a go ahead; we will see an announcement regarding the decision to bring forward the downstream development and a JV partner earlier than expected - if I have to make a guess on timing, it may be once we have the downstream PFS which could be due in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024.
In respect to the downstream JV structure; I previously made an assumption what that may look like here;
Post #: 62409050; Note; the numbers are outdated (won't be updating it until the downstream PFS is out).
So with the additional capacity - does that mean KV will have a shorter mine life?
I like to think that's probably not the case - KV will have a resource/reserves update next quarter; either more measured/indicated tonnes and/or expanded total resource tonnes.
The DFS model was based on an ore reserves of 68.5 Mt.
In my mind, I think we will see a lot of "surprises" between now and mid-2024... hopefully T/O is not one of them as I'm looking forward to receiving those dividends.
(20min delay)