How about we raise the stakes. Say, Tesla model 3 on the line? I am not going of a "feeling" or "gut instinct" when calculating a T/O price. I am going of known valuation models "like-for-like", CCA, intrinsic valuation, etc. Codelco has a history of buying into assets at a fair price. I believe through their "alliance" partnership and Rothschild as financiers, all parties understand that Maricunga cant happen without LPI. LPI is not reliant on Codelco, but Codelco is reliant on LPI, see below court finding:
From a financial side, this is what we have for LPI:
LPI Stage 1:*NPV (After Tax, 8% Discount Rate) US$1.425 billionLPI's NPV (net present value) is US$1.425 billion, which means the project is expected to generate a positive cash flow of US$1.425 billion over its lifetime, after accounting for the initial investment and the discount rate of 8%. This is a very high NPV compared to other lithium carbonate projects, such as the Sonora Lithium Project (in operation since 2013) in Mexico, which has an NPV of US$1.253 billion, or the Cauchari-Olaroz Lithium Project (in production since 2015) in Argentina, which has an NPV of US$1.030 billion.* IRR (After Tax) 39.6%LPI's IRR (internal rate of return) is 39.6%, which means the project is expected to earn a return of 39.6% on the initial investment. This is also a very high IRR compared to other lithium carbonate projects, such as the Sonora Lithium Project, which has an IRR of 26.1%, or the Cauchari-Olaroz Lithium Project, which has an IRR of 25.2%.* Capital Payback Period 2 yearsLPI's capital payback period is 2 years, which means the project is expected to recover the initial investment in 2 years. This is a very short payback period compared to other lithium carbonate projects, such as the Sonora Lithium Project, which has a payback period of 3.8 years, or the Cauchari-Olaroz Lithium Project, which has a payback period of 3.4 years.* Annual EBITDA US$324 millionLPI's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) is US$324 million, which means the project is expected to generate a profit of US$324 million per year before accounting for non-cash expenses and taxes. This is a very high EBITDA compared to other lithium carbonate projects, such as the Sonora Lithium Project, which has an annual EBITDA of US$229 million, or the Cauchari-Olaroz Lithium Project, which has an annual EBITDA of US$233 million.* Operating Cost US$3,718 per tonne of lithium carbonateLPI's operating cost is US$3,718 per tonne of lithium carbonate, which means the project is expected to spend US$3,718 to produce one tonne of lithium carbonate. This is a very low operating cost compared to other lithium carbonate projects, such as the Sonora Lithium Project, which has an operating cost of US$4,028 per tonne of lithium carbonate, or the Cauchari-Olaroz Lithium Project, which has an operating cost of US$4,004 per tonne of lithium carbonate.
* Mine Life 20 yearsLPI's mine life is 20 years, which means that your project is expected to operate for 20 years before exhausting its reserves. This is a long mine life compared to other lithium carbonate projects, such as the Sonora Lithium Project, which has a mine life of 19 years, or the Cauchari-Olaroz Lithium Project, which has a mine life of 40 years.
"Like for Like" sales are as follow for LPI. There are no ASX listed brines in this category, so we had to go private and other listed companies for like comparisons:
