Some good questions:
1) Who would they sell to: Agnico Eagle and Northern Star are probably the front runners. Have size and capability. Evolution has its hands full. Newmont is a possibility. Gold Fields is another possibility - need growth project with Salares Norte now effectively complete and failed in their acquisition of Yamana but I've heard they don't like metallurgy at Hemi. A rough outsider could be Orion itself (may be hard to structure with the right of first refusal on Greenstone but I can think of a way or two given Orion lends money - Orion could lend money, have DEG shares as collateral and ability for Gold Road to close out loan in exchange for a set discount on DEG shares). Barrick I don't think so (Bristow has said not competing with Aussies in their own backyard). AngloGold has other growth options.
2) Would GOR keep DEG holding:
(a) No - GOR haven't been able to achieve a deal with DEG to date. DEG think they can do it alone and want their jobs. Time to move on. It would also significantly reduce their required equity financing (and therefore equity raise discount). If they get a lesser discount on selling DEG stock than discount for the equity raise, it may make sense. Finally, if GOR are stretching themselves financially, it would mean they would also likely have to dilute on DEG's next equity raising (whenever that is), which would reduce strategic value of DEG holding for a takeover (them or third party).
(b) Yes - DEG haven't pulled the trigger on the equity raise, and DEG's share price hasn't materially reacted to the change in gold price. Do GOR hope they can get this Greenstone deal, get Greenstone up and running and then be printing money from two sources. They would then be in a position to make a play for DEG being the bigger party and fund largely from cashflow and additional debt. Could be a plan if DEG are held up with environmental approvals like Capricorn at Mt Gibson. Finally, it's very hard to time a sale of DEG holding with payment for Greenstone. Even harder if one of those parties interested is a potential competitor on Greenstone.
Tough one to call but I'm leaning to Yes, they keep. Need a path to being an eventual operator.
Other partial funding option is sell Gold Road's royalty on 50% of Gruyere to Orion or other royalty companies.
Either way, holding my breath on price and terms. Need to remember they hold a good asset and any deal must be accretive, recognising additional additional risk of new jurisdiction and asset that is close to completion.
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