Ann: Response to Query Letter, page-28

Zen

you ask why in hell woud Russia invade Ukraine, as if it will never happen.

To say such a thing shows that you havn't looked into the issue. The west in not emptying their embassies etc from Kiev just for fun. True, Putin, may not go through with it, but this does not explain the reasons why he is doing what he is. Do you know what motivates him?

There are world renown analysts commenting on the topic. Human actions are quite prredictabe afterall, especiay those of murdering dictators who live in constant fear of maintaining grip, and act accordingy, at any expense. In this case though, the old power system lies deeper than just Putin's personal power, but that of the entire old empire, which Putin is a product of, and that once Ukraine was brutalized into joining as part of the USSR, like so many other sovereign nations along side them.

Now, many of those nations are free, but the old mind set from dictatorial Russia hates it. When they see their old subserviants succeed in their new democracies, old Russia becomes fearful that true democracy will spread east, putting people like Putin at risk. When those new free nations also want to go the whole hog and join NATO, then 'Mother Russia' knows its chances of re-subugation of the old provinces is impossibe. Hence, Russia's insistance that Ukraine can never join NATO. That is like China telling Australia that we can't join the Quad.

You do know at least that Russia took the Ukraine's Crimea only in 2014? Russia's invasion began then. So far they have gotten away with it, and if they think they can with the remainder of Ukraine, they wll too. Fortuantey though the west is doing near everything they can to prevent them.

The only western naton not pulling their weight so far, is the most significant one in the region: Germany. They want Russia's gas form the new subsea pipeine, and are putting it ahead of defending Ukraine. But that will change if Russia invades, and Germany will be forced to assist. After all, they have come to grips with their past, unlike the present Russian authorities.

As has been said above, gas prices will rocket if Putin acts to save face. The motivations of mad men are very predictabe.

Let's see how predictabe you are.