The TIE thing is at 86 cents, the ramp up then looks like it's taking a little longer than estimated, and the annual production is going to be lower than the previous MD's hyperbole estimations, so a few start to disbelieve, and a few Shorts also come in, and they drive the price down to 30 cents.
Then gold goes over US$2,000, Matt and his crack team work work out the issues, production goes up, the AISC is low, reality sets in that things are beginning to look good, the impatient have sold but the patient start to add a few more shares to their holdings in the 30s, which looks like a bargain, so the price gradually creeps up to 42 cents.
Then the Chinese realize that most of the issue are resolved, production is trending in the right direction, and another project via a leaching operation could bring this to well over 200k ozpa, but the stock price has only mildly recovered, so they rush in and drop a (very) opportunistic bid at 58 cents, noting that the price had only recently previously been at 86 cents, when they were counting their pennies and thinking they might be able to takeover TIE for something like $1.05 and be very happy with that result.
Now they are thinking it's too good to be true, lob a bid at 58 cents and it's a gift, even if the gift is not successful they'll always get some frightened ones who'll dump on-market to them for 58 cents anyway, so they'll increase their shareholding substantially at this really low price, even if they don't get a complete takeover success at this price, and anyway, if there is a dividend in the future, then all the better, how can they lose.
In the meantime, they Chinese entities will assign a small portion of their shareholdings to their own related sub-companies, just to keep some Shorts working, and in order to suppress the share price at the same time.
The Chinese are very patient, and in business are both ruthless and Machiavellian.
Gw
TIE Price at posting:
59.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
