Ann: Restart Study Repositions Finniss Operations, page-246

  1. 3,688 Posts.
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    That's asking way too much. Its just the same repeated dribble all the time.

    Some bits were accurate a few years ago but they are now laughably inaccurate. One of her favourites is that there's a new discovery every other day. Nothing could now be further from the truth because the low prices have caused almost all exploration to cease. There are a few companies with existing deposits that are trying to progress them, but new discoveries are now few and far between. What is happening on a regular basis is companies at an advanced stage announce delays on their project. What's also happening on a regular basis is that companies that were focusing on lithium put out an announcement about some other metal that they have acquired or have in their portfolio. Often the new go-to is gold but not aways. Even CXO's neighbour LPM did this in the last few days. LPM have the Lei deposit 2km away from BP33 so now they are talking about Beryllium.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/7055/7055422-f1957e19cd0a352a99b5568ee1e50586.jpg

    CHR have been exploring nearby (and Core bought a few shares in them). And just a few days ago, there's the "we continue to evaluate something other than lithium" statement. You go through lithium exploration companies and see this again and again. In the case of Charger they note the following (and that's with Rio Tinto paying 100% of their $1.1m exploration budget this year!!)
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/7055/7055465-afbb7f5caa381c5dfca3d93da342801c.jpg

    Another is the pair of statements that are contradictory from current prices. One is that lithium is everywhere and the second is that the price of lithium is going to fall. From current prices these are like heads or tails on a coin. You can have one or the other but not both. Lithium supply could be everywhere if prices go up perhaps 100 to 200% and stay there. If prices continue to fall, there is extremely limited to no greenfields projects starting and limited to no expansion projects occurring unless there's massive government support behind the project. The ore may be known but its not adding to supply if the mine isn't built. Lithium isn't like gold and some other metals where it can be found in its natural state with minimal processing. The starting price for most lithium projects is now well into the multi-hundred million dollar sum for Capex.

    Known ore in the ground means nothing if its not economic to get that ore out of the ground. The current price of ore is massively down into the cost curve. On some estimates by monitoring agencies is that around half of all existing operations are loss making. Most projects need a price that is much higher than cash costs before they have any chance of raising capital to build a concentration plant, construct a mine and build associated support elements around water, power and tailings management. New projects aren't starting so there is no lithium everywhere from them.

    There is some spare capacity but the "snails pace" is frequently close to previous year record production levels. If lithium companies were genuinely running at a snails pace, there wouldn't be the supply issue there is and prices would be much higher.
 
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