Based on the Q1 2025 data from Piedmont ($823/t SC6 equivalent)...

Based on the Q1 2025 data from Piedmont ($823/t SC6 equivalent) and the declining trend, current prices appear to be in the **$800-900/t range**, significantly below the study's $1,330/t assumption.

### Free Cash Flow Impact Calculation

If we assume current prices are approximately **$850/t SC6** (midpoint estimate):

- **Price differential:** $850 vs. $1,330 = **-$480/t** (-36% below study assumption)

- **Annual concentrate production:** ~205ktpa SC6 equivalent

- **Annual revenue impact:** 205,000t × $480/t = **~$98M AUD less per year**

**Over 20-year mine life:**

- **Total revenue reduction:** ~$1.96 billion AUD

- **After accounting for cost savings from lower volumes/royalties:** ~$1.4-1.6 billion impact

- **Revised Free Cash Flow Estimate: -$200M to -$400M AUD** (versus +$1.2B in study)

### Key Considerations:

1. **Exchange Rate Impact:** Current AUD/USD rates are closer to 0.65-0.67, which partially offsets USD price declines

2. **Operating Leverage:** Lower prices don't proportionally reduce costs - fixed costs remain the same

3. **Royalty Savings:** Lower revenues reduce royalty obligations (2.5% gross revenue)

### Conclusion:

**At current lithium prices (~$850/t), the Finniss operation would likely generate negative free cash flow**, making the restart economically unviable under current market conditions. The operation becomes profitable again when SC6 prices return to approximately $1,100-1,200/t, assuming the cost structure outlined in the study.

This explains why Core Lithium hasn't made a Final Investment Decision yet - the company is waiting for either market conditions to improve or to secure more favorable funding terms that could improve the economics at lower commodity prices