Great post Haast, and I guess I can only really echo your...

Great post Haast, and I guess I can only really echo your thoughts.
CAI has been.... a great lesson for me, in that I have already made large losses on gold developers in the past, GCY being my most painful, costly and result lessons learned, and I have dipped my toe in when CAI was yet to turn the plant on. The mining studies looked ok, the MD has, whether people hate him or love him, stayed around when others would have cut and run, yet... like you, I can only hope that some will learn lessons from CAI. Yet once a few issues arose (particularly the grade not reconciling in the main pit, I cut my losses, BUT continued to watch to see if it was a right decision, and not just for financial reasons, but phycological, as in when I hold other producers, I know that they are proven, their models match the reserves and they are debt free, which means I sleep easy). Sometimes it is very hard to stay out of stock that looks so cheap... harder than actually staying in a stock that is truly doomed.

The only reason MQ has 'helped' out, is because they are only interested in getting their debt paid off and the hedges filled. NO OTHER REASON.
If they thought they could get their money back quicker or more confidently, they would have folded the company. Same for the contractor.....

I wish CAI all the best and hope they can pull it all off. But the biggest red flag right now, is the main pit having less than 3 years of base load ore left.
Yes, the strip ratio is low, but that is because they are... literally mining it out. Any future cutback will be basically unviable.
So... we have a plant with 3 years of base load max. The U/G at Klon will not save the day (for starters, how is CAI going to fund it?).
Let alone the many other options they are looking at (Blue Spec will still cost $30m+). CAI was provided life support this week, and it worked, but... as pointed out, there is a HUGE hump next year with hedging, debt and capex to start reaching this magical 120k p.a.

In a nut shell, I view CAI is at best a vehicle for MQ to get their money back, a way of provide good jobs for what I assume a great group of hardworking people and... a way of providing Haomi a way to monetize their mixed bag of assets.

I remember when I held BLK (became WMC), let alone GCY. Once a miner starts having to play catchup, the slope becomes steeper by the day.
OBM is a good example of where a turn-a-round can occur, but... it is a rarity.

For what it's worth, I don't think CAI could have done much else, it's about survival at this point (a higher POG could... save the day, or at least ensure the next capital raising occurs at higher prices, and please don't own CAI thinking there won't be another raising). The debt has to get paid off.
Though.. I do wonder, if CAI had instead, gone really hard and raised $50m+ paid down as much debt as possible, still move the hedges and be able to better front run the mine plan, to ensure they do have the ounces that are at this staged, 'planned' (for example, get Klon U/G up much earlier, that would enable the main pit ore to be spread out longer, or bring online another larger satellite pit earlier).

Sure the dilution would be hell, but sometimes the more painful option is the better one over the longer term.

Good luck to all holders.