RED 0.00% 34.5¢ red 5 limited

Ann: Restructured Finance Facility and June Quarter Results, page-20

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  1. 5 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 18
    Some very interesting moments here, current state of affairs:

    Revenue:
    RED5 March AISC = $1,926/oz
    SLR March AISC = $1,522/oz
    (each contributing ~50% of production so weighted average AISC around $1,750/oz)

    ~450koz production per year
    Hedging 290koz @$2,769/oz (about 15-20% of production over next few years)

    82koz @ ($2,769 - $1,750)) = ~$82m
    (445-82koz) @ ($3,500 - $1,750) = $635m (todays gold price, yet to see management guidance on production?)
    Total = $717m

    to get to FCF maybe another $80m of spend on growth capex?

    Liquid assets:
    Cash and bullion $453.7m
    (less) Debt $92.9m
    (plus) RED shares held $156.6m
    Total = $517.4m

    EV = $2.72b - $517.4m = $2.2b (at $0.405 price)

    So correct my math please, but this stock is trading for a ~3.06x EV/EBITDA ratio... Not sure what has happened recently with the stock price but I certainly was expecting post-merger for it to go upwards not downwards so as long as I remain confused by the markets valuation I will continue holding the stock. Middle column highly relevant from page 8 of market annoucement on 9th April.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6296/6296053-a57bd9d22acb2da6e3e265eff88bbcd3.jpg


 
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