@Inchiquin
Thanks for the detailed response. I think you'll find that that farmer from the image has chopped down old trees, and kept younger trees. There is so much area planted in the valley that there will always be economic decisions being made at the margin.
The subjective estimate has been very accurate since 2016 when they were out 6.6%. Maybe the farmers were expecting some carryover impacts from the previous season's humidity issues that were less bad than expected, maybe that was a year of orange navel worm worries as well.
I think it is easy to overthink the situation. We had a record harvest last year in drought. I think the odds are easily in favour of Cali having another record season. We will see what happens. Droughts are statistically excellent for Almond yields time and time again, and will probably continue to be until a possible disaster scenario unfolds at some time in the future. Odds are against that being this year. But every year the media and experts will probably be in doom and gloom mode.
I'm keen to look into what happened in the seasons where there were outlier results from the subjective assessments, but no time with a child in lockdown Melbourne.
GLTA
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