5% at the production line is 5% off the revenue line, which consensus previously had at ~$256m for this year, or about a $13m reduction in revenue. SHV work off a largely fixed cost base, so that will flow straight through to pre-tax profit. Consensus was for $63m of profit this year, 5% production downgrade translates to about a 20% reduction in PTP and NPAT.
As for pricing, they said on the call that their A$9/kg selling price includes an assumption of a bounce from here - my latest pricing is about $8.7/kg - and as we can see below, the trend is not SHV's friend. (chart is in INR)
I can't see a reason why this shouldn't make new lows.
Ann: Results Announcement Half Year, page-32
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Last
$4.52 |
Change
0.330(7.88%) |
Mkt cap ! $547.1M | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $4.25 | $4.60 | $4.24 | $5.062M | 1.127M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1317 | $4.50 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $4.56 | 222 | 1 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 18/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| SHV (ASX) Chart |