The further delay is disappointing and we are obviously going to...

The further delay is disappointing and we are obviously going to have some turbulence until the option process is finalised.

The basic investment thesis remains strong. 2000 tonnes a month @$8k per tonne is $16m a month. Add another $1m for the gold and silver. Expenses are about $9m a month (excluding depreciation) so they would be making $8m per month at 2000 tonnes

Working on they get $5m from the options and $8m per month from October then I think it could go something like

December Quarter ($29m = $5m + 3 x $8m)

1. Normalise trade creditors by bringing the balance down from $43m to $18m (about 60 days). Cost $25m
2. Pay out the employees delayed benefit $4m

March Quarter ($24m = 3 x $8m)
1. SA Gov $4m
2. Prom Note $4
3. Pull the trigger on the convertible notes. Realistically nobody will take the cash but they would need to have the $6m in the kitty before they could make the convert or redeem demand.
4. Leaves $16m in the kitty. No borrowings. No convertible notes. Trade creditors and provisions all normalised !

June Quarter ($40m = $24m + $16m from March)
1. Put $10m in bank for a rainy day
2. Pay out $30m to long suffering shareholders in dividends / capital return / buyback etc ($0.05) per share)

Each quarter after make $24m and give to shareholders ! ($0.04 per share)

I know it never quite goes to plan and it would be dependent on them executing properly and the copper price staying at $8k / tonne or above. Still a very compelling story if they can make it happen !

DYOR