Hi Curious one ,
As you say the AIC will certainly reduce as the plant ramps up.
The Corporate costs won't increase and the processing costs/t of ore mined will drop dramatically with the plant already staffed to run 50% of the time.
What a great set of numbers in the HY report
Investors waiting for confirmation that the cash burning stage is done and dusted can rest easy in the knowledge that critical production numbers have been achieved, revenues have been locked in to get to 50% capacity and its dividends just around the corner time.,
* EBITDA $7.8m is just the beginning
* Mining cost $42/ tonne Well below EA /23 's $47
* Processing $26/tonne well above EA/23's $13 Plenty of room for that to drop dramatically as the ramp up to 50% happens
Outlook in numbers:
The ramp up in copper production will slow below 20% per month IMO but will rise from 1025 t in June to circa 1.4mt by October and then settle as the plant will be running half full.
Cu production circa 7,800 tonnes in H2/24. Gold production circa 1,560 oz
Cu revenue $108m gold revenue $6m = $114m
Costs $74.8m based on first half AIC will drop to circa $65m because the corporate costs are fixed and processing costs will drop as production ramps up from $26/t of ore processed in the first half to circa $15/t when the plant is running half full.
Second half EBITDA circa $ 50m
Dividends are on their way:
With the ramp up to 50% achieved the $12m UG development capital expenditure in the first half stops as mine development costs flow in and out of the balance sheet. That cash drain won't start again until ramping up to 100% starts.
Likewise exploration costs to replace depleted resources will flow in and out of the balance sheet.
Capital costs on exploration to grow the mine life will be insignificant given only $671 k was spent in the last 6 months.
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