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17/12/24
10:06
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Originally posted by Happ:
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The nail in the coffin was Aurizon agreement, by which they agreed to minimum guarantee charges ($500k per month) without first locking in stage 1.5 expansion funding. That was reckless and stupid mistake, which they sought to first cover up and to then downplay. No one in their right mind would give them money now knowing that it would go straight to Aurizon. The issue with Aurizon is that although they are unsecured creditor they can simply refuse to haul any product unless they are paid. If it goes into liquidation, only NAB will be able to recover their secured debt with not much left over. I suspect Aurizon do not want that. So if they are to survive in current structure, all management would have to go to start fresh with investors and Aurizon would need to convert their "debt" into equity to allow future capital raise. They'd probably want a massive discount as well like 1c per share or something. I think that is the best scenario for shareholders, although future capital raises will bring it to well under 1c. Better than losing everything. P.S. Most likely there will be class actions as well which will starve them of further cash.
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