ZEN 0.00% 91.0¢ zenith energy limited

Ann: Results of Meeting, page-2

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  1. 5,619 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 584
    well, thank goodness this down dip seems behind us

    $25 mill (soon to be $30 mill) cash into the company at 58 cents a share; at a 10% premium it is like gifting current holders $3 mill (where before us current holders thought WE WERE GIFTING the $3 mill to the new holders!)

    I look forward to the end of year tax loss selling finishing; let us hope buyers appear to pick up shares 10% under the 58 cents the big boys pay; that is, let loss sellers have the Aussie govt share some of the loss; and let new buyers get a bargain for the long term; for sure there will be no tax loss sellers this time next year

    re the resolutions all passing, I do note Hamish and Doug are only paying 3 to 4% to borrow money from ZEN to buy shares; that is a bit naughty as they are paying bonds at 7.5%; so to borrow money from the bond market at 7.5% then lend it to themselves as directors at 3.5% is very naughty; I will write a short email to them in early July to let them know that is not a fair dinkum thing but since they diluted their existing big parcels AND they are buying at a premium, I give them a 'pass' on this misdemeanour

    interesting to compare, now, after cap raise passed, ZEN to PEA (the most 'like' competitor); numbers below are 'as I recall' doing a lot of reading

    PEA has net tangible assets of 31 cents per share (and trades at double that)
    ZEN has net tangible assets of about 50 cents a share (and trades about that!)

    PEA is not a growth stock and has eps of about 5 cents a share and trades at a pe of 12
    ZEN is a growth stock and has eps of about 4.3 cents a share and trades at a pe of 12

    In gearing PEA beats ZEN (lower gearing, but not by a lot with ZEN getting this new cash)

    PEA is a better 'cash cow' to ZEN as PEA is longer in the market; I look forward to ZEN having lots of cash in 2 or 3 years; but now must go through the 'pain' of growth

    PEA did a better job this past year for existing share holders 'growing' than ZEN; PEA aquired Contract Power (and the revenue and earnings and profit) with a SMALL cap raise and using cash flow; ZEN was just not in a position to do that (too new to have a lot of free cash flow); so PEA is a more conservative punt currently than ZEN

    I 'wonder' if the African prospects for PEA is a negative or positive compared to ZEN (being very secure re sovereign risk)

    PEA of course pay a dividend of 2.5 cents a share per year, franked; so at 64 cents, that is giving a really nice return
    ZEN pay no dividend (I will guess in two years they will, but who knows)
    PEA is certainly better than a bank account right now; ZEN is all about growth (if you trust them to grow)

    ZEN I think is better in the IP / renewables which will be all the rage soon
    PEA is very conservative - as far as I can see (but I can be wrong)

    On BOO contracts, ZEN has about 220 MW and PEA is about double that (a bit less than double)
    but.... the market cap of PEA is about triple ZEN (277 mill, to, I think, about 80 mill now with cap raise for ZEN)
    so... it seems to me having half the BOO at 1/3 the price makes ZEN better value

    I watch PEA daily like ZEN to see who/if/when new contracts show up; PEA seems to have BIGGER miners in their book - but rarely win new contracts; and with (PEA) 40 contracts vs ZEN 13, PEA is a bit safer, I guess

    ZEN seems to be more into the gold miners (as a percentage of their book); PEA is more broad; with gold price going crazy, that is 'lucky' for ZEN; but I wish ZEN would be more diverse with their clients; PEA is more safe in that regard; ZEN is the value, growth, make lots of money new guy on the block

    PEA in acquiring Contract Power now have mirco grids and even electricity into the GRID; to be honest, I think supplying electricity into the grid is a mugs game right now; the biggest electricity retailer in WA is going to lose $200+ mill per year because there is too much solar in the grid from the rooftop panels; I like that ZEN is NOT supplying to the grid; I like that ZEN is supplying to mines on a commercial agreement; I am even grumpy the govt is giving grants of money to ZEN competitors (like EDL) for solar (SunSHIFT) projects; what the heck is that all about; Zenith provide a viable product to market - on commercial terms -, and the govt GIFTS money to Zenith competitors to compete?; that tells me the SunSHIFT product is a bit dodgy and unproven; and why is the govt gifting money to... Oz Minerals and Goldfields.... give... me... a... break.... THOSE companies need govt money to operate???????????????????; maybe ZEN need to get some 'funds' from ARENA or the like to trial some new technologies; who knows; but once you are in bed with the govt, you lose control of your destiny

    so back to where I started this post, I hope the down dip is behind us; I am happy the resolutions all passed and Zenith can GET TO WORK.... I bought into ZEN many months ago to be a boring, stable, risk free company (and they immediately fell 25% from when I started buying... shees!).... enough of that.... c'mon Doug and Hamish... please, please, please be boring; just win a contract here and there and slowly grow... enough of this 20% down and 10% up and 10% down and 10% up.... my poor SMSF looks weird!!!!

    remember to any buyers; you are getting in NOW well below the price the big boys paid; lucky you; but I understand your fear with the share price dive of the last year; going from $1.20 to 50 cents it looks like the company is growing broke; but remember, that $1.20 was on the back of ONE half year eps of 7 cents - which was a one off contract!!!!; the 'real' eps are between 3 and 4 cents a half year.... but growing.... it will, indeed, be back at 7 cents per half year, but only in about 3 years

    Note: I kind of 'think' there is going to be a little upside bonus in the current year accounts; if you add up all the guidances, I think Zenith will be at the top end of guidance or a little over; if I subtract the BOO revenues and ebitda in first half from yearly guidance, there seems to be some 'missing' engineering revenue; so the overall ebitda may be at top or a little over guidance; or there was some engineering revenue that made no profit; we will see; if I am wrong, I am sorry; but my calculator says I am right



 
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