IMO it isn’t a matter of when one may or may not bail. Now this meeting has been said and done, I don’t care who is in charge. I want the company to perform. The management need to roll up their sleeves and perform for shareholders.
Everyone has different ideas, expectations, goals and metrics for investing in FEX. It is a matter of whether management can meet these, or clearly state or assure shareholders they are on track to meet these.
In the 18 months since I invested in FEX, the company has definately kicked goals, and some good decisions made (hedge). Macro factors have definately helped, but also provide some hurdles that are only getting bigger.
In the last 6 months, the direction has been set in stone somewhat. And it is now different to what my expectation was before this time. And unfortunately, not for the better IMO.
When I originally invested in FEX, RB spruiked the company as a niche iron ore miner that would look to target stranded high grade niche assets that would be unattractive to large miners, but attractive to FEX with our smaller footprint. And not only iron ore, but other resources such as coal and manganese were mentioned. In 18 months there have been no acquisitions to meet these goals.
Since then, the only deal done, and it now appears significant weight has been placed on, is the collaboration with SCN. I’m not against it, and it appears to be costing the company very little, but it is such a long shot it is ridiculous. I would have more confidence winning a bet that Craig Kelly will be Australia’s next Prime Minister!
C1 costs are the key to success with iron ore mining, and the further you have to move ore, the higher risk operation one has. The flip side being high grade ore, which FEX has at Iron Ridge. The unique high grade ore we have has made the project viable, as long as the IO price stays above US$100.
To find minimum 64% ore in the Mid West is a needle in a haystack. With this SCN deal, we are looking for the needle in the haystack. Anything less than 64% is not viable at this time. That’s why 100’s of millions of tonnes of iron that has been found in the mid-west is still sitting in the ground. And even so with 64%, C1 costs are still rising, making long term viability even harder.
IMO it is now the task of the company to restore long term faith in the company, starting with a very clear statement outlining what the company wants to become moving forward. FEX needs to be more than a mid-west producer, we need to be a niche miner that is eyeing off viable projects Australia wide, But all of this will be found out in time.
The upcoming quarterlies will be more important that ever, we should be turning a profit, hopefully at least $20mil considering the cheaper shipping costs and better IO prices.
Now, time for ridicule and criticism, please bring it on!
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0.320 | 200400 | 7 |
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