fair value - even using punitive discount rates on the Woodside earnout - is around $1.07-$1.1 at current FX. assuming they can do something accretive with the capital like a buyback, it is more like $1.2-$1.3. This assumes Gambia is worth very little or almost nothing (I have $3mm in my model which is less than the money they are spending getting the asset ready for farm down).
Even if Gambia was a total zero, it would simply clarify that capital returns and wind up are the only option now. Personally, I think a ~40-50% IRR, with minimal risk, is an incredible bet, over the course of the next year (or less, it could go a bit faster).
That is why i have been consistently adding and now own 3.7% of the company.
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Mkt cap ! $48.05M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
52.0¢ | 53.5¢ | 52.0¢ | $17.03K | 32.56K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 10069 | 52.0¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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54.0¢ | 22471 | 1 |
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1 | 10069 | 0.520 |
3 | 110000 | 0.515 |
2 | 35000 | 0.510 |
2 | 45521 | 0.505 |
2 | 33878 | 0.500 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.540 | 22471 | 1 |
0.550 | 82295 | 3 |
0.600 | 25953 | 2 |
0.610 | 2000 | 1 |
0.000 | 0 | 0 |
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