fair value - even using punitive discount rates on the Woodside earnout - is around $1.07-$1.1 at current FX. assuming they can do something accretive with the capital like a buyback, it is more like $1.2-$1.3. This assumes Gambia is worth very little or almost nothing (I have $3mm in my model which is less than the money they are spending getting the asset ready for farm down).
Even if Gambia was a total zero, it would simply clarify that capital returns and wind up are the only option now. Personally, I think a ~40-50% IRR, with minimal risk, is an incredible bet, over the course of the next year (or less, it could go a bit faster).
That is why i have been consistently adding and now own 3.7% of the company.
fair value - even using punitive discount rates on the Woodside...
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Last
49.5¢ |
Change
0.005(1.02%) |
Mkt cap ! $45.74M | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| 49.0¢ | 49.5¢ | 49.0¢ | $4.017K | 8.162K |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19637 | 49.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| 50.5¢ | 10000 | 1 |
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| Last trade - 13.40pm 26/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| FAR (ASX) Chart |