AGH 11.6% 4.8¢ althea group holdings limited

Hey indexhugger. Appreciate some of the points you raise. I...

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  1. 6 Posts.
    Hey indexhugger. Appreciate some of the points you raise. I don't think there is any need for some of your comments and emotiveness but I'll still try and respond.

    1. From the looks of the current holdings to the holdings at IPO, the top 40% are unchanged. To me this is a good sign. I feel as though they believe in the business and want to see it become a success. The top 40% are also feeling the pain with the share price. They've been holding since IPO in 2018. That's what I mean by they deserve to keep their company. After putting in 5 years of work, I think they should be able to get a decent return for their time. As should all shareholders that are holding and waiting for sentiment to turn positive.
    I also think there needs to be some acknowledgment that people bought a startup, pre revenue company at a valuation of over $200 million. It listed at $50 million correct? Even the IPO valuation was expensive in my mind. It's only looking like value now at a market cap of $15 million and after 5 years worth of progress.
    They honestly seem busy trying to turn a profit as well. It seems like a highly competitive market and being in a fresh market is even more challenging as rules and regulations are still being set. Difficult to navigate.
    Take the pay dispute up with them at the AGM. I'm keen for an answer as well. I'm sure they have their reasons. I'm hopeful that they are not sinister.


    2. I honestly don't know enough about P&L statements. Appreciate you clarifying. There has to be a better explanation that him moving house every year though right? The whole board has their money ties up in the company if I read the Prospectus correctly. (Which you could probably check as well which would be great). I'd like to think someone would say something if there was such obvious abuse of power.
    Another good question for the AGM. Perhaps there is a simple answer that isn't bordering on theft.

    3. Well unless you investing Pre IPO, it has only being a maximum of 5 years suffering for any shareholders. But I'd refer again to point 1. This is part of the game when you invest in start ups. It takes a long time to see a return on your capital if you get in early to a company that is yet to make any revenue. The real interest comes when a company turns a profit.
    Once again, hoping here, but I hope his arrogance pays off and your mind is changed when he starts to deliver on his promises.
    I only starting picking up on the "fully funded" talk early this year after the last raise. I'm new to the journey though.
    First I hear is that they said they would have a cash flow positive month in March. Then the final quarter of FY2023, then end of September quarter, and the Annual Report used smarter language and said they hope to be positive by end of PY2024. Which is what they should have said from the start.
    I imagine the board is feeling the pressure of the share price and is trying to reassure shareholders, but by being overly confident and using incorrect language it only makes things worse.

    Look we're half way through September, no announcement of more funds raising (yet) which is a good sign. If we hear nothing by the end of the quarter that could be great news that they actually survived with their cash holdings and either went cashflow positive or are extremely close.
    No idea about the TGA import changes. I'd assume everyone was affected. Maybe Josh was blindsided more than others? Another good question that you could look into.

    I also don't like convertible notes unless I am the one issuing. 15% is pretty steep as well. The board has to be confident that they can pay it back. Which is the way it sounded in the Annual Report.
    Obviously what they say and what they do is completely different, but at least they addressed it.

    I'm going to keep buying at these prices. Could lose it all, but the upside here is pretty incredible if they pull it off.
    If the market cap goes to 30 million from the price getting to 0.08c, that's already a 100% profit.
    The last raise assumed a market cap of $50 million. Surely they won't let any more shares go with a valuation less than IPO, but sometimes you have no choice to survive.

    Let me know your thoughts. I'm genuinely just a random investor though trying to make some money, there's no need to turn your frustrations at me. I'm happy to direct them at the company and try get to the bottom of some of these issues with you all.

    Can me as a sock puppet at least have a cool name though?



 
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