Hi
@JoelstarThanks for your detailed post. In the interest of healthy discussion and debate I'd like to explain my thought process as to why I do not want or think it's in our best interests that an imminent takeover proceeds and would want it vehemently denied if such speculation did somehow come true.
I should also add I very much appreciate you have significantly more knowledge on this company than I do and history with with the stock. I do not intend on defining myself as anything other than someone who enjoys and appreciates early stage exploration.
As you know all too well deposits like this do not come around too often. I would consider myself a highly cynical, highly doubtful speculator who is only looking for the red flags and considered everything a well-marketed scam unless proven otherwise. I had never heard of GCY or the NN deposit until it came up on a scan of mine around ~15c. NN hit it out the park for me at that point in time.
Scavenging for the red flags (on that deposit alone, absolutely nothing else) was difficult and I thought it was too good to be true. It was predominantly the NN charcateristics that had me gut the rest of my portfolio and plunge a significant portion of my net wealth in once comfortable that I had accounted for risk on all the other factors that take play when building an investment case and ultimately executing a significant decision.
I am by no means a geologist, geotech, mine engineer or anyone that resembles a smidgen of mining knowledge but I've invested in ASX mining companies for long enough to know one thing. NN puts the story back into GCY. There is nothing that the ASX and it's gamblers enjoy more than a story. Better yet, a story that is backed by what could be considered a *genuine* deposit in a region that is completely starved for ounces. A real phoenix from the ashes type narrative. I know a lot of people think that this is rubbish, but the longer you trade stocks or invest in companies whatever floats your boat the more you will realize that human emotion and ultimately someones decision making is based in beliving a story.
Now I should preface this next part by saying I know a lot of you reading this have been burnt hard and are underwater and I sympathize. I know what it feels like to lose hundreds of thousands of dollars and how it can make the hair on your scalp stick up. A takeover today or tomorrow does not unlock the full value of what could be discovered since they've pursued their new strategy. It's a dopamine sugar rush hit that's exciting, sexy and instant. It would probably relieve a lot of you of months of hell and what's more - it would prove you were correct and that your convictions in holding were correct. Human nature is often times more interested in being proven correct than making money and I think that's a core reason why a lot of people don't sell when they start to lose money.
As part of SL's promoting of the new NN-based narrative of GCY to shareholders existing and new is the repeated commentary regarding repeats. Simon has advised the market that his team has "unlocked" the "code" of the district by advising that there is already a well-understood belief within the company that they understand the structural controls that are believed to the source of multiple repeats of NN and that they understand the stratigraphy, lithology and features that may lead to similar success.
The only reason GCY is where it is today is because of NN and that is no secret. Any take over by a predator in the immediate term may undervalue the company should their theory be correct and they have multiple NN's sitting right there. There is no shortage of news flow coming in the next 3 months that should prove this. How do you value a company like this if they find a repeat? The narrative and the potential for another deposit will create far greater value than any opportunistic takeover may do in the immediate term.
I think SL and team know this. They have elected to skip putting in the drive as previously reviewed and are instead sinking money into the ground as quick as possible to review and upgrade tonnage at NN and pursue other targets. Should the footwall expand or should the northern look-alike (or structure sitting at the pit) return something even similar to NN it will create far more value for shareholders as it 1) keeps the story going and 2) proves the theory correct. A NN repeat will create further value for shareholders than any t/o imo, it's just the time horizons that are different. SL is working through his priority targets and these results are expected imminently although I do not doubt for a second they've been reviewed internally and form the part of the new drill program. How strong a signal can they send to the market that there is a repeat? They've literally said it in their announcements.
Delphi ceasing to be a roadblock does not necessarily mean that a t/o is more likely, it just means it's less likely to be blocked should there be on (presumably by WGX). Noting we are in a much different capital market environment now than the previous attempt.
Whilst I agree with you I think the board would happily walk away with their money (evidenced by their actions to date) i think they could do that coming off a much higher base should they find a repeat and SL would be banging the drum on that continuously.
Trading activity in the last week is still an extremely small part of the register and could simply be the company running into fair value in anticipation of good results. Buying rumor and selling fact is entirely possible. You and I don't know what Tembo would do. By SL's comments they absolutely grilled him and the deposit prior to putting down their money and if they loved NN that much you'd think they'd stick around for a few more?
Yes there are potential bidders but I think the company would be doing us a disservice if they tapped out without trying to recreate the NN success across their land package now they know what to look for. In fact - and I know this would be an unpopular opinion - I would love to see them double down on drilling and go bloody hard at it even if they had to raise money and completely upgrade the program and it's supporting staff/operators.
In summary there's nothing the market loves more than a story and one NN is great but mulitple is fantastic and if they are so unbelievably confident their is multiple - I do not want to get caught up in M&A which will detract from the underlying narrative.
40c tomorrow by T/O or 40c in 3 months after a repeat is confirmed? At the end of the day everyone wants whats best for themselves and their position and that's what I love about equity markets but I think there's a reason a lot of you have stuck around and that's because you know NN's dont come around too often. It'd be a real shame if we didn't see this through because someone takes a quick swipe and I'd really rather a massive bidding war when we are 1moz at NN + have a couple repeats on the go.
Anyway just my opinion everyone's free to disagree and hate it I don't mind. Trust you are all having a lovely weekend if you made it this far and thanks for reading.
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