Ann: Results of Meeting, page-32

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sholtz

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09/09/23

10:54

Post #: 69794672
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Originally posted by synaphai: ↑

Using the word derisked doesn't bother me, and there are things Wayne has said that do, because I have no doubt that the DurAVR will be approved. I simply posted the Edwards info because I thought it was interesting to see a giant in the space and a competitor have a significant stumble, especially with a system that's being upgraded, not completely reworked. And when they're spending almost $3 billion AUD on research and development per year. Throwing big money at something doesn't necessarily make it work better. Edwards also didn't run an EFS with the new Sapien X4, they just went right into the pivotal trial and subsequently ran into a problem.

I post my opinions on what I think is realistic when it comes to timelines and one thing I've noticed is that Wayne has seemed to modulate his comments around an approval date from potentially next year or in 2025 to, "we’re not 25 years away from the goalpost". It's likely going to take quite some time, at least with a US approval, barring a buyout but I've also posted a few times calculations on the economics of my projections and why I think Anteris can still be a fantastically lucrative investment even if it takes a few extra years. That's why I posted about patience.

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I thought the Edwards annual AU$3B R&D spend you mention sounded high for a company with sales of US$5.3B last year, so I had a look.
The June quarter spend on R&D is the highest they have had on record at US$270m with the total for the last 4 quarters being just under US$1B.
On the current exchange rate that is AU$1.6B for the last 12 months.

Still, when they spend US$1B on R&D in the last 12 months it puts into perspective the value of DurAVR as it is far superior to the Edwards offering.
And the value created for AVR shareholders when you consider what we have spent to get to this stage of development is amazing.

Edwards are also a leading supplier of surgical valves, our current results will put that business segment under pressure when DurAVR comes to market.

Last edited by sholtz: 09/09/23

AVR Price at posting: $20.80 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
15 Upvote

4 Great analysis

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