JRV jervois global limited

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1.1¢

They need to get north of 250 million for shareholders to get a...

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xxLiONxx

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29/05/24

16:07

Post #: 74067350
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Originally posted by Deme: ↑

I've mentally written this investment off.

5 years of my time, energy and large amounts of capital wasted.

My fault entirely - of course. I am too trusting. I trusted management to be competent/solid custodians of my capital & they made every single mistake in the book - yet I continued to trust them.

The debt covenant waiver was until July. It bought them a fraction more time, but for what?

As @miningnut correctly pointed out - even if Jervois were to achieve an asset sale (meaning the contractual rights to Jervois' refining share of Kokkola) - it will be for peanuts. No company in its right mind will buy an asset that doesn't make money and not when the seller is capped at A$40m or thereabouts and in the weakest possible negotiating position. Why would they? Trying to strong-arm a potential buyer by saying that the VA process could drag out for years - so if they want the asset - they will buy it now - is a ludicrous negotiating tactic IMO & reeks of Bryce's desperation. I highly doubt an asset sale will go down - and even if it does - the proceeds won't be enough to address their large debt position.

That leaves two options:

1/ AustralianSuper saving them - similar to how they saved Syrah & others. I thought this the most likely outcome, however, I've noticed AustralianSuper distancing themselves in the media recently from any mention of Jervois. It may be nothing, but I am no longer sure. Gut feeling now tells me that they will cut their losses here.

2/ Hail Mary option from the USG. 5 years of talks, talks, talks - but nothing substantial has resulted on this front, so the odds of this option are virtually nil.

I can see a suspension dropping any day now. 99% of my capital has already been destroyed, so I am personally not going to sell and will ride this to its natural conclusion.

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They need to get north of 250 million for shareholders to get a single dollar. Debt holders are in the queue ahead of us.
Agree, this is a mental write-off bucket. No point taking 1.6c haha. I donate that to Bryce.

JRV Price at posting: 1.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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