I think the reason is that the plans over the years nearly always seemed plausible. Just enough had been ticking along (e.g. Delivered scoping studies, signed JV agreements, drilling results etc.) to keep at least some in the market thinking that was potential for real growth for the company. And there was some unforeseeable bad luck, like COVID and Ukraine war related sanctions, which slowed progress and limited concentrate sale options.
Then the really bad misjudgement of the likelihood of an arbitration win set back everything greatly. The time and money spent pursuing the arbitration is really what has greatly reduced the value of the company. It will have made negotiating finance and new JV partners very difficult, if not impossible.
That one decision, to pursue the arbitration, in my view, has been the killer. Their lawyers, among others, should have known better, given they would have been aware of and briefed on the history and should have been able to recognise the estoppel that appears to have occurred.
Is it partially recoverable? Maybe, but a lot of damage has been done.
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