Gerardibus - The IO price cycle continues.... Based on the...

Gerardibus - The IO price cycle continues.... Based on the scoping study, RHK is profitable at prices above ~$USD60/t with C1 cost forecast at $USD50/t. This is based upon 3Mtpa output. Target output appears to be now 5Mtpa, which would lower this further.
The NPV is sound as RHK used LT forecast IO price of $USD89/t. IO price is holding steadily above $USD100/t. The price being maintained around 100-130 is actually better and more sustainable than spikes up to $160-200 and is less likely to encourage China to stockpile and manipulate prices lower.

Africa is still a number of years off producing any real volume that would put a dent in global supply in my opinion. For example the biggest future IO mine in Africa Simandou is planning to produce 60Mtpa from about 2028/29 onwards... that is only about 5% of world supply.

To the comment re: Port capacity at Port Hedland. Utah Point has capacity of 24Mtpa for IO and Atlas (the major supplier through that terminal currently) is pushing through about 9mtpa plus a few other smaller players (<2Mtpa) so there is ample capacity for RHK's 3-5Mtpa based on my research.