Ann: Results of Third BMX Auction, page-95

Based on the 3rd Auction results this is my revised forecast for 2021/22:
The offtake agreement revenue should increase each quarter assuming I am correct in thinking only the Yibin agreement is fixed priced until March 2022 and the other two will start to increase.

Revenue

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7
0	Auction Results	Dmt	US$/dmt	US$M	AUD$M	Ship date
1	30-Jul-21		10,000	1,250	13	17	Aug-21
2	14-Sep-21		8,000	2,240	18	24	Nov-21
3	26-Oct-21		10,000	2,350	24	31	Feb-22
4	Nov21-Jun22	50,000	2,350	118	157
5	Total		78,000	2,198	171	229
6
7	Offtake Agreements	Dmt	US$/dmt	US$M	AUD$M
8	Q1		85,972	726	62	83
9	Q2		90,000	1,000	90	120
10	Q3		100,000	1,200	120	160
11	Q4		111,028	1,500	167	222
12	Total	387,000	1,134	439	585
13
14	Total 2021/22		465,000	1,313	610	814
15

Based on that Revenue estimate 2021/22 should generate the following all in AUD:
Production dmt 465,000
Revenue $814
EBITDAX $530M
NPAT $395M
Net surplus cash $345M (before JV spend)
PE Ratio 16.4

If the General Lithium and Ganfeng offtake agreements increase more in line with current pricing then the above numbers will look even better.

A PE ratio of 16 for a company in strong growth mode is way too low.
The market is clearly factoring in substantial falls in the Lithium price but with not much new supply coming online for at least the next two years I think prices will hold for at least two years and maybe longer.