If there needs to be restocking the answer becomes less important. My sources indicate that restocking of concentrate from smelters pre-refining is where pressure is coming from. It's reflected in lower TC/RC premiums. The situation is very akin to U, before the jump.
However, I would give it till Q3 2024 to become more obvious. A combination of natural usage and US interest rate falls. Of course, the Fed is likely feeling exactly the same. The Ox is slow but the earth is patient.
All IMVHO.
PS My intention was just to communicate what a typical insto. is saying. You would know it's, "live by the insto die by the insto".
If there needs to be restocking the answer becomes less...
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