Your #1 is (imv) least likely: recall all those phonecalls with Grazien reported here regarding him not being up to it after the huge BFS fail ... his comments were like "I am not going anywhere. i am not a quitter."
I think he sees himself delivering but had no idea or experience how.
If you look carefully at Kirkwood's comments in the ASX ann, he did not have a good word for BG in the "farewell mate"
i would add 2c to your list and make it my #1 - Tap on shoulder - significant fail to perform.
Your #1 is (imv) least likely: recall all those phonecalls with...
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