Happy to be critiqued but on my numbers I think this has been an accurate re-rate rather than a panicky selloff. Here's my take:
Prior guidance(using numbers from 30 June quarterly)
FY24 production guidance of 138,000oz (using actuals for March, June, and then midpoint of H2 guidance)
Net debt of US$21M (debt of A$49.7M less A$17.3M cash, converted at AUDUSD 0.65)
At share price of A$0.50, market cap of A$544M or US$354 - so EV of US$375M
AISC midpoint of US$925/oz and assumed sales price of US$1,900/oz means margin of US$975/oz for 138k
Project ownership of 88% mean operational cashflows of US$118M
>>> EV/EBITDA of 3.2x
Latest update
FY24 production guidance now 105,118oz (again, actuals for March, June and then midpoint of revised H2 guidance)
Net cash US$9M (debt of US$18.75M less cash of A$42.6M converted at AUDUSD 0.65)
At share price of A$0.35, market cap of A$381M or US$248M - so EV of US$239M
AISC midpoint of US$1263/oz and assumed sales price of US$1,900/oz means margin of US$638/oz for 105k
Project ownership of 88% means operational cashflows of US$59M
>>> EV/EBITDA of 4.0x
Note that my operational cashflows for the latest figures are within spitting distance of what Tietto say they'll do in H2, being US$50-60M (my figures also capture cashflows from March and June which I don't think were that material). The main thing to note is that despite the share price cratering, because of the reduced production/increased cost guidance, the multiple has actually gone up... for it to trade on the same 3.2x EV/EBITDA multiple as the original guidance figures, that'd be a share price of A$0.28/sh. With the uncertainty around the resource model I think this trends lower for now, although assume there will be trading opportunities as we've recently seen swings of +7%, -9%, +4% etc. Very interested if they can turn it around but on an EV/EBITDA basis, both WAF (2.5x) and PRU (2.6x) are now cheaper.
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