Yes fair points CG - reasoning is I was trying to compare like-for-like on FY24 guidance; using run-rate when something is ramping up can be equally misleading, are they really going to sustain that month by month? It seemed safer to do their H1 actuals + their H2 guidance, rather than extrapolate it. But for reference:
1) Annualising August run rate would be 134koz at US$638 x 88% = op. cashflows of US$75.2M or EV/EBITDA of 3.2x
2) Annualising H2 guidance midpoint would be 160koz at US$638 x 88% = op. cashflows of US$89.8M or EV/EBITDA of 2.6x
Interestingly point 1) above, if correct, suggests my earlier point stands - this is a re-rate, and based on their new guidance, 35c is the new 50c. Cheers
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