I guess another way to ask the question would be this - what sort of EV/EBITDA multiple do you think would be fair for Tietto? Per above, I make their EV to be US$239M, so using run-rate production estimates they were 3.2x before the downgrade (when at $0.50) and 3.2x after the downgrade (when at $0.35). Other ASX African miners for reference:
WAF 2.5x
PRU 2.6x
RSG 3.9x
Obviously it's an imperfect metric because not all ounces are the same, all the company outlooks are somewhat different - PRU running like a well-oiled machine but just lost their growth project, sitting on a massive war chest and likely looking to acquire someone; WAF carrying development and security risk, RSG suffering from recent bad mining press in Mali, etc. But as a rough comparison it shows that the African goldies are wearing steep discounts, regardless of operational performance - most Australian miners are around the 5-6x mark, with CMM as high as 8x. Looking at the four Africans I follow, TIE doesn't look to be that bad off from a multiple perspective, given the challenges they're working through. Happily they are not highly leveraged though I haven't read the half-yearly yet.Easiest way is to check shortman.com.au. TIE is currently #24 at 5.81% held short, as of 6 September data.
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