Highly doubt that's the case. The retraction was "after consultation with the asx" and is almost certainly due to the forecast being based on a material assumption regarding another company's operations.
There were four key numbers going into the forecast:
Subscriber base - this is public information and we know it to be accurate
Contractual % tv2 earn: this is contractual and I highly doubt a lawyer will inflate a contracted amount.
Subscription price : this is completely out of tv2s hands and likely the reason for the retraction imo. Tv2 likely has a good indication of subscription price but since they have no control over it (rather indosat set this) and this can wildly change the revenue amount, it's lends a lot of doubt to the forecast.
Conversion rate within 12 months - an assumption once again based on indosat operations and how many of their customers sign up. Which is dependent on indosats sales and marketing efforts.
My view is although tv2 might have good indication on those two assumptions ultimately they are at the hand of indosat completely unverifiable as indosat can change their mind in pricing or marketing efforts, and introduce material variability into the calc..thus the retraction.
TV2 Price at posting:
0.9¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
