Ann: Return of Capital - MYX (updated), page-69

Great analysis of the Nextstellis situation. Took over $100m of failed Sales and Marketing expenditure to even consider that DTC was an option! It's like the board were in one of their meetings and...

"hey guys, one of my grand kids showed me this thing called Instagram - wow - you can connect directly with your market without having to drag people kicking and screaming into cash splash seminar"

Isn't surprising that the Nextstellis numbers started getting more solid as they actually worked out that Social Media hits the demographic they are targeting between the eye-balls. So all of a sudden after their tie-in with GoodRx (since August) they start get exponential growth on their web site/channels. Well Derrrr!

Unfortunately as @Patrick31 has mentioned; others do it so so much better!!! It is still like a first time social media user is driving their campaign. There is little evidence of encouraged reviews on Reddit or other Peer Forum type sites. Too few reviews/comments and a really messy message leaves the reader with a lingering thought; "does Nextstellis really sound like it would improve my current situation?"

From what I've read (peer reviews) - very little will change with Nextstellis and it will slowly etch out a place in the Birth Control market NEVER getting anywhere near the promises that (the real) Scotty from Marketing made. It just doesn't appear to be as good as we were told it was; even looking at their testing data seems to tell a different story to what MYX and Mithra were selling us investors.

The diamond in the rough may just be Annovera it may just end up being a Nuvaring (bye bye Haloette) killer. But I fear; and the market seems to agree; MYX have *way* overpaid. TxD failed a sell and were on their knees just about fold as their cash had run out, then the Knights (MYX) in shining armor came through and pay basically a figure which the market celebrated from a TxD perspective, and has chocked on from a MYX perspective. A clear sign of over paying as at least some of those that abandoned MYX have dug into the financials further than what Dickkyboy from WA has.

That said - as the price keeps falling you look for reasons to stick;
1. Generics showed some signs last 1/2 and if there is a suitor; we may just get a return as there'd surely be little goodwill left to pull out of the books.
2. Surely the SA manufacturing is on the market; as some Government Grants have been received recently there maybe some conditions on sovereignty (?? not sure about this one).
3. Surely Dermatology can be fixed. Obviously negative revenue is a shock and might be tough to come back from 1H 23, but surely if the products are any good and actually being used - the problems are corrected. Looking for a strong forecast 2H 23.

We just don't seem to be holding *any* support levels atm.