Ann: Revised 2019 earnings guidance, page-39

I stated my bottom of the cycle earnings ranging from 18c to 10c, with 10c just being a speculative wild guess.

These type of businesses have high cost structures which can't easily be reduced.
As ABC has reved up production capacity over the years, so has its cost structure.

Any downside will hit at current cost structures, not at cost structures existing 20yrs ago.

my high degree of uncertainty gave rise to the wide bandwidth of potential bottom of the cycle earnings, and to emphasise again 10c is just a wild guess.

but this does give me the reflective value range.

with even the upper range being below the share price, I am still comfortably on the side lines, with my capital intact.

The nagging uncertainty I have, is focus should not be on values at bottom of the cycle.

focus should be that market conditions were very worrisome last year with house prices hoeing backward, debt servicing and most importantly Labor's election promises.
This has been resolved with the libs getting back in and interest rate cuts.
early signs of grassroots recovery already appearing.

Interesting times