I guess not sure if you both considered potential recession...

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JPGuru

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21/12/22

20:04

Post #: 65405953
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Originally posted by edshann: ↑

The admin is for the next 5 quarters, plus the 30 months of Atlas from start 2024, so just under 4 years. You were calculating the cash flow from the existing operation plus Atlas. So I did the same. Who knows what else may happen.

Sales last quarter were 45 kt and the margin $345. After deducting $6 million for tax, admin, rehabilitation and exploration the net cash flow was only $6.8 million last quarter. They are suggesting in guidance some run down in stocks this quarter, so sales may be higher than you suggest. However on your sales number of 45 kt I do not see how they generate $16m after subtracting tax and overheads. The same applies to your quarterly numbers for 2023 unless prices rise sharply.

In short I cannot get anywhere near your $180 million net cash flow.

In total you have $77 million less overheads for Boonanaring and the net PROJECT cash flow for Atlas of $62.7 million, which also does not take into account the "overheads" and tax. That only adds to $140 million in total and then you need to deduct tax, Boonanaring rehabilation, admin and ongoing exploration.

That certainly gets net cash flow below $100 million over nearly 4 years. We agree IMA have enough to finance further projects and possibly some dividends. It is just not as flush as you suggested.

It will be interesting to see if they publish guidance for 2023 at the end of 2022. Combined with the Atlas numbers that would give the market a better feel for the outlook. At present the share price seems marooned.

Thanks for your contributions by the way. We may not always agree, but this is supposed to be a discussion forum and you add a lot of value.

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I guess not sure if you both considered potential recession impact and what @2ic said about potential lower price for mineral sand ... !!!

so many if and buts .... !!!!

can anyone guess why did takeover offer didn't went ahead ??

IMA Price at posting: 14.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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0 Great analysis

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