Couple of things I noticed from the slides for ALB’s presentation.
1. They only mention an independent expert concluding the deal is in the interests of shareholders - but they didn’t include the bit that is in brackets in the LTR ASX announcement of it also being subject to the expert “continuing” to hold that view. I think in the case of a company which is rapidly derisking the majority of remaining risk and in an environment of more volatile price for the product that they “continuing” to hold that view is very important. I wonder why ALB failed to include that bit in their presentation to their shareholders …
2. The offer price is founded in the underlying value LTR ascribed to LiOH of $30/kg in our DFS. Now …. will the independent expert have regard to changes in the market’s expectation of longer term likely value? Will it consider the extent to which past predictions have fallen well short of the mark even in the short term of the last few years? Will it take into account newer projections of increasing rate of demand for lithium vs failing rate of increased supply coming on line?
3. I wonder how the base value for spod pricing is established in the offtake agreements with Tesla, Ford and LG … those could be very important in assessing the actual future value of the LTR assets (will all of that detail be divulged in due diligence?).
I see this as not so much as “guaranteed TO” … rather this is step 2 of a multi-step game of chess where only a limited number of persons actually know their side’s intended future steps.
Happy to have been here since 2.4c (and yes I’m one who has never sold and only bought more). Happy for the returns “made” so far (entered with only intention to fund an EV purchase but now … so much more is possible). Will happily accept what comes from the final outcome here (but I will be voting my various holdings votings as negative at only $3). But really would rather see the mining and dividend paying outcome for which I now see the company is so close to achieving.
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