In fairness think the market response is about right atm.
I think it's a great contract win and can't see why it won't get the final tick of approval in the coming weeks. Both RNO & BTNX have sounded pretty solid about the partnership in a couple of announcements & BTNX has been through the Canadian process before. But, it hasn't happened yet.
- The original BTNX MOU was announced on 25th January (10 weeks ago)
- The HY Report hinted at a 2 year year contract (7 weeks ago)
- Last week's Supply agreement finally confirmed the minimum quantities
So in some aspects the news with regards a Tier 1 partner is 10 weeks old.
Since then things have unfolded like:
- Ukraine & Russia
- Talk of rising interest rates
- A Federal election
- A Cap raise was announced in conjunction with the Supply agreement
- We're now in School Holidays/Easter break
- We still need final regulatory approval
- The BTNX contract doesn't start until July
- The BTNX contract & revenue doesn't ramp up until October
- Governments aren't talking as much about Covid & our health as they were before
- Most long termers already have their fill & like Elite said can top up in due course
- Other competitive technologies come along (i.e. see ResApp (RAP) & Pfizer proposed acquisition today).
- Bell Potter & co don't get their shares until 19/4
I have faith the BTNX deal will happen in full and that there are other decent contracts in the making.
I think RNO will re-rate over time, but for now I'll sleep a bit better than I was this time last week.
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