I agree with the overall sentiment of disappointment Camban but, you know, businesses often/always take longer to find their way than you expect and it is normally pretty bleak at the low point. This was an interesting post a few weeks before Task doubled, "you continue to lay in sleepy stocks going sideways I'll put money to work elsewhere and revisit when and if the story works".
I don't agree that transactional revenue is all important. It's volatile (as it turns out) and low margin. Transactional gross contribution in FY24 was only $1.8m vs $9.2m for recurring revenue. Transactional revenue went backwards last year but has been growing if you ignore what in retrospect was a bit of blip in FY23. The problem was, perhaps, that management didn't understand the risk around that revenue and allowed the cost structure to blow out. That was in turn a major contributor to a $8m cash outflow in the half year, a share price shocker.
Anyway, I think that's history now. The second half to March seemed to show only minor cash burn, and that's with cost cutting only effective halfway through that period. Recurring revenue is higher coming into FY24 and the new product is flying so recurring revenue growth is accelerating.
Finally, I can't argue liquidity is not horrible, but I think you're guessing with the wash trading. I bought about $70k on the ASX recently and it seemed to trade pretty normally. I pushed it up a bit at that stage and then got run over by sellers! Will they regret it? Who knows. Hopefully!
I think it's a stock with limited downside at this point, leaving aside the obvious liquidity risk, and multiples of upside.
IKE Price at posting:
37.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)