On a probabilistic basis, it wont be commercial.
Thats why CR's are always before drilling results, and any risk management by the underwriter will also occur before the results.
I doubt we'll see much, if any, buy before spud run due to the shortfall overhang.
The less risky trade idea would be pickup BAS for around 1cps if W# is a duster, and hope for some rebound after the initial selloff.
(accidentally posted this on wrong thread so reposting here)
Ann: Rights Issue Closure , page-4
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