1MC 20.0% 0.3¢ morella corporation limited

Ummmm, its down to raw oversight/point of clarification. Without...

  1. 133 Posts.
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    Ummmm,
    its down to raw oversight/point of clarification.

    Without this you might think the 2:13 rights include the options (which is in itself a right to a bunch of shares). i.e. you get to keep your options but can buy even more normal shares in the placement.

    As to your point why not buy on market at 5.9c:
    a) not much was sold today at 5.9c so your order will be at bottom of que and maybe not filled
    b) because you believe the share will slide down further - so why not buy for lower?

    What to do boils down, at least to me, to 3 approaches (assuming you feel it has intrinsic value):
    1. 'AJM - will fall further! Don't buy yet!' - because the 6c creates a 'cap' on the share price until the $21m is fully absorbed by the market - otherwise an 'arbitrage' opp exist where you can just buy more and lock in the sell price. This is in particular in the period shortly after the record date before payment is due. So you have nothing to loose in the short term to wait and see how much lower than 6 it falls.

    2. 'Let's wait and see' - don't buy now (even if cheaper), and wait to see what happens with the share price between the record date and before payment is due & sell in this period to take advantage of arbitrage. This scenario leads to exercising this placement in short term. There is no risk, and only upside here. Well, the risk is that you don't get the full allocation if you want to 'arbitrage'.

    3. 'Na - it will go up, buy now' - because you believe it will only scrape 5.9c and not much lower. Jump in while you can, but sit out on the allocation, grabbing a few more shares at a cheaper price.

    What will cause share price to jump beyond 6c? Lots of things - though likely macro factors as unlikely any new internal announcements for next few weeks.
    And you also have those trying to play games of 'buy more now, so I can exercise even more now and get more control of the company' - which also creates a self-fufiling upward pressure on share price.

    All of course in my IMO. And I'm sure there are lots of holes in what I wrote.
    I've lost money on paper, so feel free to ignore my advice...Or maybe, take my advice - in particular because of that.

    Cheers
    Last edited by Mindbender: 17/10/19
 
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