The main issues for VMS were not really the IO price ( the 2019...

The main issues for VMS were not really the IO price ( the 2019 study had a $90USD price earning VMS $30m ) , but the discounts to 62% and shipping costs.
The discounts are not 8% ,as were projected in the 2019 study, but now 30%.
The shipping costs are not $29, as we’re projected in the 2019 study, but now $54.
The main reason for discounts is the rise in metallurgical coal due to shortages
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/091521-china-seen-short-50-mil-mt-met-coal-in-2021-even-as-coking-capacity-rises-sources
The main reason for shipping costs is the blockage in the Panama Canal which is causing a backlog still being worked though , AND covid workforce issues.
That said the market also doesn’t like sudden shocks, so Chinese gvt restrictions on IO smelters n steel producers was the last straw for prices I guess.
Shipping issues will be resolved , so too metallurgical coal ( so discounts for 57% will lessen). Just depends on the time frame. Only unknown really is Chinese gvt actions.