Ann: Rincon 2,000tpa Li2CO3 Operations Update, page-162

What exactly are your “valid concerns”..?

Are these some?:
“Rincon is just too small, it will still take years and years for them to get to the fully planned 12ktpa, and even then for any future expansion more than that could take 2+ years just in approvals let alone construction (as you can see how hard it is to get a small 10ktpa environmentals granted).”

“Rincon is just too small”
Is it?
Too “small” for what?
Pablo has assessed enough brine to 100m for about 10ktpa for 16.5 years. We are drilling to 300m+ to expand this. Likely outcome imo is at least double, so at least 20ktpa for 15 years or so.
Again, “too small” for what?
Have you done cash flow and NPV analyses in various likely production and LOM scenarios? Didn’t think so. Justify your blanket hollow statements with at least some basic actual analysis.


“It will still take years and years to get to the fully planned 12ktpa”
Yes it will. It will take circa 2 years just to construct the expansion. No surprises there. No other brine developer is in a significantly different boat. Most other hyped juniors haven’t started construction and so will be “years and years” before they produce anything of substance. Valid concern? Nope, that “concern” is just stating what is obvious to anyone who has half a clue.


“any future expansion more than that could take 2+ years just in approvals let alone construction”
Yes, it could. That is why the company plans on paralleling any further expansion approvals with construction of the 10ktpa expansion. The govt can then do their assessment whilst we spend 2+ years building and commissioning the 10ktpa expansion.
That minimises, as much as reasonable practicable, any “waiting” between the next two expansions. See how that works? It is not a sequential process.
It will probably be late 2025 when we are producing from the expanded plant, if we can start construction mid-later this year. That would mean we still have about 2.5 years, maybe 3, to get any further expansions approved, beyond the 10ktpa expansion, to maintain continuity in growing the project. JZ even laid this out for clarity. Anyone who has a reasonable capability to breakdown the various timeframes involved is aware of this. Imo this apparent “valid concern” rapidly becomes rather insignificant when the detail is assessed.


“you can see how hard it is to get a small 10ktpa environmentals granted”
Hard? I don’t see it as being hard; simply a lengthy process whilst the govt goes about whatever their process is. And before you whinge about the guidance, JZ did originally expect <12 months, largely due afaict to the prior permits (for the 2ktpa plant and its operation) taking circa 12 months. Imo this was a reasonable estimate. How about assessing other companies and their permitting timeframes for perspective? AKE Canada spod mine circa 5 years…. Etc etc.
No other company is on a significantly “better” position wrt to timing for getting permits granted afaict. There does not appear to be anything “AGY-specific” that has led to the approvals dragging out.


“you can't believe a world management says in regards to deals, offtakes, financing (almost anything they've put an estimated timeframe really).”
Perhaps re-read company warnings about forward-looking statements; and get it out of your head that these are some type of “promise”. That nonsense is repeatedly passed around these threads as though JZ is somehow making untruthful claims. Investors with a reasonable grasp on the industry should be absolutely aware that guidance wrt deals, offtakes etc etc are simply rough estimates based on various assumptions and knowledge at that time, and there are OFTEN many issues and factors that introduce slippage etc, often major slippage. This is across the board.
Assessing “performance” based on rough company guidance around deals, offtakes etc, and subsequent delays and issues that are largely outside of the company’s control is a game for the inexperienced and naive. Again, genuinely compare to others and precedents, and incorporate relevant modifying factors, for a more reasonable assessment of “performance”.
…tonne after tonne after tonne of BG product is far far more and far far ahead of any other new brine entrant afaict. I’ve posted the detail about Rincon Ltd and the subsequent Rio purchase, and how long they have been “developing” that project. They claimed BG from on-site pilot plant in 2017 iirc. 6 years later they are building a 3ktpa starter plant and still exploring how to develop a larger project.

Perspective.
Unfortunately many fail to grasp it. Perhaps because it takes more research and time and effort than most are willing/able to commit.


Perhaps read the latest LKE announcement, where they claim to have produced “2,500kg of lithium carbonate”, but on closer inspection it seems this was an absolutely misleading and factually incorrect statement. Glad AGY doesn’t blatantly lie about technical progress like that.


Ps. What do you actually think that AGY could have done differently to have significantly accelerated the project compared to where it stands today? Serious question. And don’t apply too much benefit-of-hindsight; I’m looking for a genuine response that illustrates where they have materially and reasonably “failed” in their approach or strategy, that was “clear” at the time.

Perhaps some people need to look in the mirror and examine their expectations to see where their apparent “disappointment” is rooted.


How many new brine producers in the last 20 years?


Imo
Dyor