@GCar
It doesn't matter what I "fell for", the share price (of AGY and other Li producers) "fell for it". AGY's SP has been off as much as 50% in the past six months, and consensus opinion is that this is due to the drop in Chinese spot pricing. We can't have it both ways, cheering the Chinese spot price as it crests new highs, but then dismissing it as it approaches new lows. Funny how it only became irrelevant after it started going down....
I also think you're being disingenuous with your examples. You and I both know that there is a pricing lag with many of the contracts for the larger producers. Take your example of AKE, where you noted (verbatim from the last quarterly report) that the average realised price received for its lithium carbonate from third party sales was $US53,175/tonne. You're correct, but you've conveniently left out the very next point from their report, which is a forecast ~20% pricing drop in the current quarter to approximately $42,000 per tonne. Important info, don't you think? With their contract pricing mechanisms, there's likely to be further downward pricing pressure as the lag in reference pricing continue to flows through into those future contracts.
With regard to PLS (which I also hold), their BMX were heralded as the standard for spodumene pricing moving forward. Funny how those auctions haven't occurred for six months or so now.
Anyway, I think we're near the bottom of the pricing range now, particularly with the Chinese spot price turning. But it is plain as day that the drop in the Chinese spot price had a disproportionately negative effect on the share prices of most Li producers, and it is foolhardy to believe that this couldn't be replicated in the future.
