Perhaps the initial outlay from such a customer could be say “only” $100M…?
In round numbers:
2 years of 2ktpa plant profit
= 2yrs x $25k/t margin x 2ktpa
= $100M
+ $100M initial prepayment from said customer
= $200M
Should be about that to build the expansion…?
Add 10 or 20%… no big deal, still sub-$150M for the customer, up front.
Well, not even up front, could easily be 50% in yr 1 and 50% in yr 2 of the build, pending key milestones/progress.
The 2ktpa plant funds a decent chunk of the expansion imo! Puna mining invests its profits to get the expansion built. Sounds reasonable. Win-win; Pablo and team is in for the long haul afaik.
Then, the remainder of the “prepayment” (the other $200M or $250M out of the $350M total) could be paid during the first year of production:
Say $10M per month to fund Opex, then the appropriate balance upon product shipments…?
This type of deal would de-risk the customer commitment significantly, and it would be very different to a simple “upfront” payment of $350M.
They would be staggering their payments to coincide with build progress and production.
AGY gets what it needs to build the expanded plant, as long as things progress successfully, and then the cash to fund operation of the expanded plant.
Win-win.
Lots of options, this is merely one.
I’m certainly looking forward to whatever the announcement is, when it ultimately arrives.
If that doesn’t give us a serious rerate, nothing will!
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