This all just highlights how difficult it is to get battery quality production from a brine operation and reinforces the view that the optimistic timelines for all the other up and coming brine hopefuls (DLE or not) will have plenty of timeline blowouts contrary to the optimistic supply models of bankers. Here is a little timeline of progress including the offtake issue from the monthlies (I wanted to remind myself where things are at and thought I'd share my thoughts). My comments in italic.
28 Oct-22
* The Company is on track to achieve first battery quality lithium carbonate product, with current commissioning works successfully producing primary lithium product
* The Company is targeting timing for the funding solution to coincide with the 10,000tpa Environmental Impact Assessment regulatory approval (or near this time), and in the lead up to 2,000tpa lithium carbonate production operations. (This plan of approval+funding together before full ramp up is present in numerous future quarterlies)
* The Company submitted its Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for an additional 10,000tpa lithium carbonate production operation to the department of the Salta Province Secretary of Mining, who is currently processing the report. (EIA with government)
1 Dec-22
* The Company’s 2,000tpa operational development works at Rincon are nearing completion of commissioning works and advancing towards commencing continuous production operations and producing battery quality lithium carbonate product.
* The Company’s target is to progress ramp-up works and achieve steady-state production operations by end of H1-CY2023 (H2-23 is the plan for many quarterlies for steady state production)
3 Jan-23
* current commissioning works at 90% completion, during which the Company has produced battery quality 99.76% lithium carbonate product
* The current commissioning and production test-works phase is scheduled to be completed over coming weeks, leading to then commencing the production ramp-up phase during the current quarter. The Company is targeting to complete the ramp-up phase and achieve steady-state production operations by end of Q2-CY2023. (interesting line about a timeline to complete current commissioning/test works by end of January)
30 Jan-23
* with 98% of scheduled works completed and current commissioning works at 90% completion....have produced ~1 tonne of battery quality lithium carbonate product
* The Company is targeting to complete the ramp-up phase and achieve steady-state production operations by end of Q2-CY2023 (still aiming at Q2 23)
* Continued strong lithium market fundamentals supporting formal progress with several strategic groups for lithium carbonate off-take arrangements and related strategic capital funding proposals for the 10,000tpa operation expansion at Rincon (off-take likely ready and waiting on expansion approval as the plan was always to ramp up production 'in the lead up to' approval/offtakes)
* The Company is aiming for the strategic funding and off-take arrangements to be finalised to coincide with the 10,000tpa Environmental Impact Assessment regulatory approval (or near this time), and in the lead up to 2,000tpa lithium carbonate production operations.
* and based on recent progress, the Company remains confident of a positive outcome and is targeting formal approval receipt during the current quarter (current quarter approval didn't happen)
1 Mar-23
* Overall, 98% of the total works are completed
* 5 tonnes of battery quality lithium carbonate product to date
* targeting to complete the full systems ramp-up phase works and achieve steady-state continuous production operations by end of Q2-CY2023.
3 Apr-23
* currently produced 10.2 tonnes of battery quality lithium carbonate
* The 2,000tpa commissioning phase works are nearing completion, in preparation for
continuous production trials (commissioning works still ongoing. Commissioning works should of been completed in January? Some difficulties crop up?)
* The Company is targeting to achieve steady-state continuous production operations from
end of Q2-CY2023.
27 Apr-23
* with current batch production trials having produced 10.2 tonnes of battery quality lithium carbonate
* Chemical process and technology validation and verification works completed, confirming the successful operational capability to produce battery quality lithium carbonate product at commercial scale
* The 2,000tpa commissioning phase works are nearing completion (commissioning works still ongoing)
* The Company is targeting to achieve continuous production operations from end of Q2-CY2023
* The Company is continuing to progress other pre-development works for the 10,000tpa operation including renewable energy/power sourcing arrangements, industrial water drilling operations, preparing for detailed engineering/scheduling works, preliminary engineering for the aqueduct operation, and realignment of the site access road.
* The Company is aiming for the strategic funding and off-take arrangements to be finalised to coincide with the 10,000tpa Environmental Impact Assessment regulatory approval (or near this time), and in the lead up to 2,000tpa lithium carbonate production operations. (original plan still intact here)
* The Company is awaiting regulatory approval from the Salta Province’s Secretary of Mining department for its Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for an additional 10,000tpa lithium carbonate production operation, who is currently processing the report. The Mining Secretary and her executive team recently conducted a site visit. (sounds like the offtake/funding waiting on approval)
* As part of the regulatory process, the Company is now conducting notification meetings
with stakeholders with a view to finalising the process and obtaining formal approval notice from the Mining Secretary. These works were slightly delayed, however formal approval receipt is targeted during the current quarter. (stackholders = local interests/people. Delay due to AGY being required to communicate with locals as part of the approval process?)
1 May-23
* have currently produced ~13.5 tonnes of battery quality lithium carbonate
* The Company has completed all chemical process and technology validation and verification works, successfully confirming capability to produce battery quality lithium carbonate product at commercial scale
* The 2,000tpa commissioning works are nearing completion, in preparation for continuous production operation trials (still in commissioning?)
* The Company is targeting to achieve continuous production operations from end of Q2-CY2023 (timeline still intact)
1 June-23
* The Company has currently produced ~17.5 tonnes of battery quality lithium carbonate
* Current commissioning works have progressed to a semi-continuous operations phase, with planned upcoming works targeting to achieve continuous operations and leading to ramping up production operations during H2-CY2023. (this is new wording. Seems like an upgrade over commissioning which obviously took longer than expected)
* Current commissioning works have progressed to a semi-continuous operations phase, with
planned upcoming works targeting to achieve continuous operations and leading to
ramping up production operations during H2-CY2023 (timeline seems to have been delayed)
In summary, my interpretation,
* Some delays in the commission phase occurred which seemed to have somewhat progressed in the latest quarterly. It seems like they hit some difficulty early in the year that took a few months to resolve. Some 'planned upcoming works' on the plant should resolve this finally moving things from 'commissioning'.
* Offtake, funding dependent upon expansion approval and not plant output ramp which was always going to be lagging in AGY plans. Here AGY is waiting on government and last updated back at end of April, so should get some news any day now.
Few hours of reading but I'm actually more optimistic now. I suspect more plant progress next month and that offtake should be out soon (tm).
